- Bitcoin has held on to the $100k-level, regardless of $35M in brief liquidations and rising macro uncertainty
- Trump’s Fed Chair feedback and robust S&P rally added gasoline to crypto’s short-term bounce
Bitcoin’s [BTC] resilience has been on full show recently.
Regardless of a barrage of macro noise, charge reduce odds, Trump’s Fed shakeup tease, and institutional reshuffling, BTC remains to be buying and selling above $100,000 on the charts.
And in doing so, it has stored FOMO on a low simmer with out flipping into euphoria.
Such a setup screams bullish continuation. You see, we’re midway by way of 2025, and the market’s leaning onerous into the rate-cut narrative – 97.4% odds for a reduce on the subsequent FOMC.
That’s an enormous vote of confidence.
Nevertheless, right here’s the factor – What if the Fed doesn’t budge? What if the CPI ticks increased and inflation throws a wrench within the plan? Mid-June may get messy.
Quite the opposite, if BTC retains its energy, it may set the tone for a breakout heading into the second half of the yr.
Resilient labor market strengthens BTC’s macro setup
Could’s Non-Farm Payrolls report got here in strong. 139,000 jobs added vs. 125,000 anticipated, although barely under April’s 147,000.
The unemployment charge stayed at 4.2%, highlighting a gentle however wholesome labor market.
Supply: Buying and selling Economics
Skeptics may argue that this robust employment knowledge contradicts the concept of a rate-cut pivot. In any case, why decrease borrowing prices when financial exercise is secure?
David Hernandez, Crypto Funding Specialist at 21Shares, informed AMBCrypto,
“BTC has discovered strong footing above the significant $100,000 help degree, with every day spent above this degree strengthening it as a basis for future upward strikes.”
He added that Bitcoin’s capability to carry by way of volatility displays rising institutional conviction. Particularly with the Fed funds market pricing in near-100% odds of a pause this June.
Merely put, secure labor knowledge means inflation pressures are manageable with out extra tightening. This provides the Fed room to pause charge hikes. In flip, it additionally encourages funding flows into risk-on property like Bitcoin.
No surprises from the Fed, strong ground for Bitcoin
Because the U.S. financial system continues to tame inflationary pressures with a string of “better-than-expected” knowledge, it wouldn’t be shocking if the Fed holds charges regular on the upcoming assembly.
Nevertheless, what about these 97.4% odds priced in? Nicely, that’s why Bitcoin’s resilience issues.
Whereas short-term volatility is inevitable as buyers reposition forward of the Fed’s determination, BTC’s capability to carry the $100k-level retains FOMO intact. It additionally validates its structural help.
In truth, we’ve seen this dynamic play out repeatedly over the previous two weeks.
Regardless of BlackRock decreasing its publicity, Bitcoin hasn’t flinched. Holding six figures within the face of institutional distribution underscores simply how strong BTC’s macro setup actually is.
Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Trump’s Fed tease stirs the pot
In an surprising twist, Trump teased a brand new Fed Chair choose not too long ago, regardless of Powell’s time period operating till 2026.
Supply: The Kobeissi Letter
His feedback added gasoline to the speculative hearth and helped push crypto markets up 2.5% over 24 hours – Alongside $35 million in brief liquidations.
But when that is simply hype—and never substance—there’s a danger this aid rally fades simply as quick.
If CPI stays contained and the Fed delivers the anticipated pause, this base at $100k will change into launchpad territory.
However, if the market’s pricing proves untimely, we may see a volatility shakeout earlier than the following leg.
Proper now, Bitcoin isn’t breaking down – It’s loading up. And, if the macro deck falls into place, the following breakout might not simply reclaim highs, however rewrite them.
