Is $115K BTC Price Realistic?
Key takeaways:
- Half of the $6 billion in Bitcoin options open interest is tied to long-shot strategies used for hedging and neutral price strategies.
- The 9% put (sell) options premium hints that professional traders are worried about a potential Bitcoin price drop.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have high hopes for the year-end options expiry on Dec. 25, which features $6 billion at stake. The 33% price gain since the $60,130 yearly low on Feb. 6 have played a major role in bringing back bullish expectations. However, the huge amount of call (buy) options targeting $115,000 and higher for Dec. 25 raises questions about whether bulls are overconfident.
December Bitcoin call (buy) options open interest at Deribit, BTC. Source: Deribit
Deribit exchange holds a 92% market share in December’s Bitcoin options open interest at $5.5 billion. However, the actual value at expiry will be much lower. Many of these instruments were placed on unlikely outcomes as a hedge or for neutral strategies that do not require large price moves to remain profitable.
Bitcoin call options dominate, but both sides have unrealistic bets
Put (sell) options are underrepresented by 56% on Deribit compared to call options. Crypto traders are known for being bullish, so the put-to-call ratio is usually skewed. Still, the $1.85 billion in open interest in call options targeting $115,000 and higher is significant. This setup makes it worth comparing how optimistic call options are versus the puts.
December Bitcoin put (sell) options open interest at Deribit, BTC. Source: Deribit
The high volume of put options targeting $55,000 and lower is also notable, totaling $1 billion in open interest. This means the percentage of bets considered improbable is similar for both sides, sitting at roughly 50% of the open interest in each segment. If bulls are seen as overly optimistic, then the bears appear equally extreme in their pessimism.
December Bitcoin options pricing at Deribit on May 7. Source: Deribit
Beyond serving as a counterbalance in strategies with different expiry dates, a call option at $120,000 offers cheap exposure to extreme upside events. Based on Deribit prices on May 7, a buyer pays $2,202 to secure unlimited upside exposure to the equivalent of one full Bitcoin at a price of $120,000 or higher on Dec. 25.
The options skew metric provides a clearer view of professional traders’ comfort levels regarding both upside and downside price risks.
Related: Bitcoin holds $81K amid flat derivatives markets–Is rally sustainable?
Bitcoin 6-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit: Source: Laevitas
Put options are trading at a 9% premium relative to equivalent calls, signaling moderate fear of downside price movements in Bitcoin. Under neutral conditions, the skew indicator should range between -6% and +6%. According to derivatives metrics, investor optimism was not substantially impacted by the rally to $80,000.
Ultimately, the $1.85 billion in December call options should not be interpreted as a sign of excessive bullish confidence.
